For all investment portfolios[1]  – both its own and those you choose to put together yourself  – Advinans makes a forecast for future returns which is presented in a graph. The graph is intended to give you an indication of how the investment fund’s future development will be. It is, however, important to point out that is just an indication and not a guarantee of future returns. 

Advinans’ simulation is based on established statistical models and takes the following into account:
 

• Each asset's historical risk/volatility (if an individual asset has only been in existence for a short time, it will be removed from the simulation so as not to be misleading)
• Each asset’s historical movement in relation to various broad market indices
  
• The historical development of several broad market indices

On the basis of the above, a risk and expected return is calculated for each asset. Everything is then put together and the investment fund portfolio's various expected outcomes are presented to you in a graph.

The middle line represents the expected return. The upper and bottom lines represent a range within which 80% of all outcomes should end up. In other words, there is a probability of 90% that you should get a higher amount than the bottom line – according to the simulation. 

[1] Does not apply to the pension simulator Advinans is based on Pensionsmyndigheten's pension prognosis standard